Impact of SARS on China may be profound

Taipei Times ^ | 4.30.03 | Chang Ching-hsi

[Enemy Of The State]

Impact of SARS on China may be profoundBy Chang Ching-hsi
Tuesday, Apr 29, 2003,Page 8

In response to global criticism of its handling of the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), China recently sacked its health minister and the mayor of Beijing. It also admitted that the number of SARS cases in Beijing was actually 10 times higher than initially announced. The government canceled the week-long Labor Day holidays that start May 1 in an effort to stem the spread of the disease. But China is still not cooperating fully with the World Health Organization (WHO), nor has it come clean on its SARS situation.

SARS is continuing to spread in China and its impact on the economy may have just begun. In light of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) tradition of deceit, we can expect the SARS crisis to eventually deal a lethal blow to the economy.

The party sacked Minister of Health Zhang Wenkang and Beijing Mayor Meng Xuenong because they covered up the SARS outbreak. This is laughable because the two were not alone in the cover-up. They were only implementing the party's policy. The entire Chinese media covered up the matter and deceived the people. Such a cover-up was not the remit of either the health minister nor Beijing's mayor.

If the party seeks out those responsible, a massive number of officials will lose their jobs. Sacking a few officials is therefore merely a way of responding to international pressure and answering the WHO. The move did not show China's determination to openly deal with the epidemic.

Beijing has been shocked by the rampant spread of SARS. Not only has the disease spread to most of China's 31 provinces and municipalities, but it has also spread into every corner of society. Over 4,000 Beijing residents have been quarantined. The rising number is expected to reach its first climax between now and the Labor Day holidays.

A reporter recently called his doctor friend, who was assigned to an intensive care unit in a Beijing hospital. The doctor's response to the Ministry of Health's statistics was: "That's balderdash! Don't believe such government propaganda. The official figure is even lower than 0.1 percent of the real number of SARS cases in China."

The inadequate medical and communication systems in China's rural areas may greatly increase the rate of infection. It's scary just to think about it.

Although China's economy appears to be doing great, it's in fact deeply rotten. China was able to temporarily maintain its economic development due to its tight control over the media and foreign exchange, as well as its people's relatively high savings rate and the massive foreign capital that has poured into its market.

But the economy is in deep trouble. For example, the bad loan ratios of public banks are now as high as 50 percent, the unemployment rate may exceed 30 percent and the rule of law is almost absent. China has the world's worst income distribution, the most dishonorable business practices and the most rampant corruption. Any of these problems in a free society may cause social uproar, leading to an economic or governmental collapse. Thus, the collapse of the Chinese government is just a matter of time.

SARS has already damaged China's tourism industry. Many business meetings have been called off. Even its qualifications as a "world factory" are gradually fading. The country's financial and economic development cannot continue without foreign capital, which is now forcing the CCP to gradually reveal the epidemic situation. However, the party's covering up of the situation inside will eventually cause a catastrophe.

Chang Ching-hsi is a professor in the department of economics at National Taiwan University.

[headsonpikes]

No schadenfreude here, eh? lol

[txhurl]

Yes, in the final analysis it is a wallet issue.

Did any other countries wring their hands over the terrible Sept 11 impact on many of our industries?

[rottweiller_inc]

more than that. One of Marxs' goals was to have a borderless world. The rapid spread of disease shows why that is a bad idea and it interferes with globalization. Anything that interfers with the concept of a borderless sociaty will be marginalized or ignored in the march towards globalization.

[mabelkitty]

Also huge AIDS epidemic in this area, Russia, Eastern Europe and other places.

This is why the SARS is so mild on us Americans. We don't have such a large populace of HIV positive and AIDS.

That, and I am sure this has ALOT to do with their air pollution. I worked with folks from Asia, and they were always getting respiratory illnesses - they were young people, too.

[per loin]

A reporter recently called his doctor friend, who was assigned to an intensive care unit in a Beijing hospital. The doctor's response to the Ministry of Health's statistics was: "That's balderdash! Don't believe such government propaganda. The official figure is even lower than 0.1 percent of the real number of SARS cases in China."

If his doctor friend is right, that would mean over 3 million cases in China, by current figures. Hopefully he made this assessment on much earlier "official" figures.

[Princeliberty]

China's economy is living on borrowed time,
also not mentioned in the article is
that most of the growth is simply Government
and government allied corporations doing
building projects that do not produce
wealth but simply done to give higher
GNP figures and make work.
Further, a lot of the economic
figures that China releases are
probably simply false.
Remember after the collapse of
the Soviet Union we learned that
their economy was always smaller
than they had claimed.


So this may cause the collapse to
occur sometime very soon.
There is the danger China's regime
may make a desperation military
attack on Taiwan in attempt to
save themselves and
look for them to unlease NK
on SK as well or even do that first
and then go after Taiwan.

One danger is the fact our military
is certainly getting spread thin
and this may encourage them.
Now I do think this will be a false
encouragement on their part.
However, the military does seem
to overestimate their own capacity
and underestimate our capacity.

Whatever the case stop exporting high
technology and capital to China
because this may lead to more Americans
dying in battle with China, even though
we still probably should win more
Americans will die due to giving this
technology to China.

Further, but for the exporting of technology
and capital to China, China's regime not
only would not be able to even consider
starting a war as a desperate move
to save themselves, the regime probably
would have already collapsed by now
and with it the NK regime.

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

this sars panic is getting out of control

[Billy_bob_bob]

Great graphic. I still say SARS is a rotten name. Let's all call this the "Kung Flu". That name just works better.

No, I didn't come up with this name, I'm just doing my part to popularize it.

[Enemy Of The State]

Thats a funny pic, but if you live in beijing its not so funny.

An excerpt from one of my dear friends living in Beijing:

"hi, i'm doing ok now. yes, the SARS is really serious here. we will not go to office from tomorrow since a person who had caught SARS was found in our building. it's just like a nightmare and we don't know when we can wake up. :(

don't worry about me, i will be very careful. but you know, i believe in fate, if i only have 24 years to be alive, i will die even if there's no SARS."

Jokes are funny as long as its not your nightmare :(

[Enemy Of The State]

See post 11

[Dog Gone]

Godzilla was specifically warned not to lick trains.

[Dog Gone]

There's really nothing for Americans to do today except to see how China deals with this.

[Enemy Of The State]

It a bittersweet way, you are absolutely correct.

[SierraWasp]

"There's really nothing for Americans to do today..."

I just can't comprehend the reason for the hype and fear! I getting sick of SARS hyperbole. The name is almost redundant... Isn't "accute," severe enough already?

I guess I'm just running a compassion deficit, or am suffering from Severe Accute Compassion Fatigue!!!

[Dog Gone]

Yeah, it's redundant, although acute refers mostly to sudden.

I'm burning out on it, too. While it was fairly frightening before we knew what we were dealing with, knowledge helps.

This is like an out-of-control wildfire in the western states. We need to get it under control, but the people in Delaware don't need to be watering down their roofs. At least not tonight.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

While I was in Boston this weekend, there was an interesting article in one of the papers regarding the fact that the Chinatown area has all but shut down, and that the restaurants there were taking desperate actions to attract business such as advertising their efforts to disinfect, etc, etc. - even though there have been no reported cases there, the Chinese in this country are panicking.

[SierraWasp]

"This is like an out-of-control wildfire in the western states."

That was an analogy, right? The disease isn't spreading out here!

I'm anxiously awaiting your response to the ChiCom/GlobalCrossing Demo/Corruption thread I just posted and pinged you to.

[FITZ]

But the economy is in deep trouble. For example, the bad loan ratios of public banks are now as high as 50 percent, the unemployment rate may exceed 30 percent and the rule of law is almost absent. China has the world's worst income distribution, the most dishonorable business practices and the most rampant corruption. Any of these problems in a free society may cause social uproar, leading to an economic or governmental collapse. Thus, the collapse of the Chinese government is just a matter of time.

How come so many keep saying China is Capitalist now and all this global trade made it become Capitalist?